Building diagnostic neuroimaging biomarkers for psychiatric disorders using reverse inference approaches: A viable route?

The advent of structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) at the end of the 20th century opened the way toward a deeper understanding of the neurophysiology of psychiatric disorders, substantiating regional structural abnormalities underlying this group of clinical conditions. However, despite abundant and flourishing scientific research, sMRI methodologies are not currently integrated into daily diagnostic practice. One reason behind this failed translation may be the prevailing approach to logical reasoning in neuroimaging: The forward inference via frequentist-based statistics. This reasoning prevents clinicians from obtaining information about the selectivity of results, which are therefore of limited use regarding the definition of biomarkers and refinement of diagnostic processes. Recently, another type of inferential approach has started to emerge in the neuroimaging field: The reverse inference via Bayesian statistics. Here, we introduce the key concepts of this approach, with a particular emphasis on the clinical sMRI environment. We survey recent findings showing significant potential for clinical translation. Clinical opportunities and challenges for developing reverse inference-based neural markers for psychiatry are also discussed. We propose that a systematic sharing of imaging data across the human brain mapping community is an essential first step toward a paradigmatic clinical shift. We conclude that a defined synergy between forward-based and reverse-based sMRI research can illuminate current discussions on diagnostic brain markers, offering clarity on key issues and fostering new tailored diagnostic avenues.