Climate change in a semi-arid environment: effects on crop rotation with dairy manure applications

Agricultural crops grown in the irrigated semi -arid region of southern Idaho account for almost two-thirds of the median household income in the region. The impacts of climate change on cropping systems and the availability of water for irrigation would be a serious challenge for the state's economic dependence on agriculture. The objective of the study was to simulate the future impact of climate change on a crop rotation of spring wheat-potato-spring barley-sugarbeet grown in the semi -arid region of southern Idaho using conventional management practices and a high dairy manure application. The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) simulations used bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated projections from the World Climate Research Program's coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5 to generate 40 GCM projections for the time from 2071-2099. The 28 -yr scenarios were designed to simulate the impact of temperature and CO2 regimes on crop production, soil nitrogen mineralization, nitrogen seepage, deep seepage of water, and nitrous oxide emissions. Data from a field experiment in southern Idaho with conventional fertilizer practices and annual applications of 52 Mg ha -1 dairy manure with a crop rotation of spring wheat-potato-spring barley-sugarbeet were used in the RZWQM2 simulations. Results were compared to a baseline scenario of conventional management practices, historical weather data, and ambient CO2. Spring wheat yield increased by 22% and 16% for manure and fertilizer treatments, respectively, compared to the baseline scenario. Using the same comparison, potato tuber yield decreased by 65% and 60% in the manure and fertilizer treatments, respectively, for the highest temperature and CO2 increase scenarios. Spring barley produced a 33% higher yield with increased temperature and CO2. However, yield decreased when temperature increased, but CO2 remained unchanged. Sugarbeet yields decreased by 16% and 18% for manure and fertilizer treatments, respectively, compared to the baseline scenario. Nitrogen mineralization, N seepage from the profile, and nitrous oxide emissions were strongly influenced by the manure applications, and there was little simulated impact of climate change on these processes. These simulation results indicate that genetic enhancements or alternative management will be needed to maintain potato and sugar beet production levels in semi -arid areas, while spring barley and wheat yields may increase, assuming adequate irrigation water supplies are available.