Modeling and Managing Invasive Weeds in a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the distributions and impacts of invasive weeds. Invasive weeds reduce crop yields, threaten agroecosystem biodiversity and stability, and cause additional harm to non-agricultural ecosystems and human health. Minimizing these effects requires a proactive approach. For example, growers, land managers and other stakeholders should be trained in invasive weed identification and management before invasive weeds colonize their land. Anticipatory management of invasive weeds therefore relies on predictions about which areas are vulnerable to invasion. This chapter describes models used to predict the distributions and impacts of invasive weeds under current and future climates. Such models have been developed for invasive weeds in agricultural and non-agricultural ecosystems, in the United States and other world regions. We also summarize trade-offs related to model scale and complexity. Many analyses would be improved by the addition of parameters related to weed biology and habitat characteristics, so modeling should be accompanied by efforts to generate these data inputs. In addition, long-term modeling should acknowledge uncertainties related to weed adaptation and cropping system adaptation under climate change. Despite these outstanding challenges, we conclude that modeling efforts provide reliable and useful insights into the effects of climate change on invasive weeds.