Reliability assessment of folding wing system deployment performance considering failure correlation

The reliability of folding wing deployment performance greatly impacts flight vehicle reliability. Based on the dynamic analysis theory, the deployment dynamic model of folding wing mechanism with joint clearances is established and solved. Considering the failure correlation, the system reliability models are developed for both cases, without considering synchronization and considering synchronization. For the former, a solution method combining saddle point approximation and numerical integration is proposed. For the latter, an estimation method based on a combination of the fourth order moment Pearson distribution family and the numerical integration is proposed. The efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methods are verified through examples. In addition, the trend of the system reliability change when the distribution parameters of random variables are different is also analyzed. From the perspective of improving reliability, the above study can provide theoretical guidance and data support for the design, manufacturing and service process of the folding wing mechanism system.