Climate impact on cereal yields in the Upper Cheliff plain, Northern Algeria

The Upper Cheliff plain (North of Algeria) experienced substantial impacts from climate variability, particularly notable as the majority of cereal cultivation areas rely on rainfed practices, devoid of irrigation. Certainly, the insufficient rainfall during the critical phases of the crop's life cycle in 2020-2021 resulted in cereal production in this region dropping to 51500 kg, which is less than half of the yield from the 2019-2020 agricultural season (124300 kg). The study aimed to assess the influence of climate change on cereal crop yields in the Upper Cheliff Plain by analyzing trends in rainfall, temperature, and humidity time series over 30 years, from 1981 to 2020. This was established with mathematical formulas and statistical assessments of cereal production. The study revealed three distinct periods: 1981-1987, 1988-2004, and 2005-2020. Annual rainfall decreased by 11% between 1988-2004, while temperatures increased by 0.1(degrees)C in recent decades, leading in lower humidity. In 2017/2018, with a rainfall of 634 mm, the average yields of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L), durum wheat (Triticum durum L) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L) were respectively 2800, 3100 and 2100 kg ha( -1). In 1996/1997, when rainfall was less than 246 mm, yields of the same species did not exceed 600, 700, and 700 kg ha( -1). It can be explained by the vulnerability of cereals to water stress. The results illustrate the strong link between selected climatic parameters and agricultural production in the semiarid climate such as the Upper Cheliff Plain.