Unraveling the Dynamics of Stable and Curious Audiences in Web Systems

We propose the Burst-Induced Poisson Process (BPoP), a model designed to analyze time series data such as feeds or search queries. BPoP can distinguish between the slowly-varying regular activity of a stable audience and the bursty activity of a curious audience, often seen in viral threads. Our model consists of two hidden, interacting processes: a self-feeding process (SFP) that generates bursty behavior related to viral threads, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with step function intensity that is influenced by the bursts from the SFP. The NHPP models the normal background behavior, driven solely by the overall popularity of the topic among the stable audience. Through extensive empirical work, we have demonstrated that our model fits and characterizes a large number of real datasets more effectively than state-of-the-art models. Most importantly, BPoP can quantify the stable audience of media channels over time, serving as a valuable indicator of their popularity.