Spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression analysis for runoff variations in the Weihe River Basin

In order to investigate the effects of vegetation changes on runoff and to obtain recommendations for improving runoff in the Weihe River Basin (. In this study, a spatiotemporal geographic autocorrelation weighted regression analysis (SGAWRA) approach was newly developed based on previous studies. This approach investigates spatial non-stationarity of the dynamic response from vegetation variations to climatic change and human activity. Implications of spatial non-stationarity related to runoff variability were also discussed, which in turn yield the effect that vegetation changes have on runoff. The method systematically analysed the spatial non-stationarity of vegetation variations and its associated effects on runoff. Therefore, more closely related results with less error were produced at each step, and results with more accuracy were obtained. These results indicated that the average trend rates of NDVI in the annual average, each season, and the growing season (Growing season refers to April to September) exceeded 0. Areas where NDVI show a growing trend cover more than 50%, which is greater than the area with a decreasing trend. The GWR regression parameters of precipitation, average temperature, and NDVI are all greater than 0. The GWR regression parameters of human activities and NDVI also have more than 50% of the area greater than 0. Based on the visual analysis of the calculation results, it can be seen that there are obvious spatial trends in the data, and the spatial data are significantly different between different regions. Therefore, WRB can be regarded as spatio-temporally non-stationary. In the WRB, the underlying surface change with vegetation change as the prominent feature is the leading cause (about 60%) of the runoff attenuation. The results showed that WRB has spatial and temporal non-stationarity. The spatial non-stationarity of vegetation has a greater effect on runoff changes. The results of this study support recommendations for improving runoff in the WRB.