Risk factor analysis and model construction for fish bone foreign body in children's pharynx

Objectives This study aimed to assess the risk factors for predicting the presence of fish bone foreign bodies and to develop a risk prediction model. Methods Data of 1405 children who underwent video-guided laryngoscope for suspected fish bone foreign body ingestion were retrospectively analyzed. Multi-factor logistic regression analyses were performed to analyze the risk factors for the presence of fish bone foreign body in patients, and a risk prediction model was established based on the results of the logistic regression analysis. Results The results of the statistical analysis showed the presence of an ulcerated surface increased the risk of having a fishbone foreign body in the pharynx by approximately 55.36-fold (95 % confidence interval (CI): 15.78–194.24), followed by a clear chief complaint site, which increased the risk of having a fishbone foreign body in the pharynx by approximately 7.963-fold (95 % CI: 4.820–13.15), and a tingling sensation, which increased the risk of having a fishbone foreign body by approximately 7-fold (95 % CI: 3.483, 14.233). A clinical prediction model (nomogram) was developed and its validation was performed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, in which an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.808 indicated that the model had a great prediction capability. Conclusion The predictive capability of a logistic regression model for the detection of fish bone foreign bodies following ingestion is significant. Clinicians can concentrate on monitoring these risk factors and implementing appropriate interventions to reduce the risks of patients presenting with fish bone foreign bodies.