Complex burn prioritization models as a decision-support tool for managing prescribed fires in large, heterogeneous landscapes: an example from Everglades National Park, Florida, USA

Abstract Background Prescribed fire is an essential strategy employed by natural resource managers to serve ecological objectives of fire management. However, limited operational resources, environmental conditions, and competing goals result in a finite number of burn days, which need to be allocated towards maximizing the overall benefits attainable with fire management. We developed a decision-support framework and a burn prioritization model for wetlands and wildland-urban interfaces in Everglades National Park (Florida, USA). The model included criteria relative to the conservation of plant communities, the protection of endangered faunal species, the protection of human life, the protection of cultural, archeological, and recreational resources, and the control of invasive plant species. A geographic information system was used to integrate the multiple factors affecting fire management into a single spatially and temporally explicit management model, which provided a quantitative computations-alternative to decision making that is usually based on qualitative assessments. Results The model outputs were 50-meter grid maps showing prioritization scores for the pixels which are targets of prescribed fire. During the 50 years of simulated prescribed fires run for model validation, the mean burned surface corresponded to 716 ± 501 km2 y− 1. Mean fire return intervals, simulated for marshes, prairies, and pine rocklands were 9.9 ± 1.7, 7.3 ± 1.9, 4.0 ± 0.7 years, respectively. Mean fire return intervals, simulated within the A. maritimus mirabilis, A. troglodyta floridalis and S. acis bartrami butterflies, and E. floridanus critical habitats were 7.4 ± 1.5, 3.9 ± 0.2, 6.5 ± 2.9 years, respectively. Conclusions By performing fine-scale spatial computations, the model supported diverse fire regimes across the wetland landscape, based on spatial variability of ecosystem types and species habitats, while satisfying the need to protect human life, cultural heritage, and infrastructure. Employment of the burn prioritization model will allow the achievement of optimal or near-optimal fire return intervals for the higher-priority conservation objectives, by applying a quantitative methodology to fire management planning. We recommend using decision-support frameworks and models for managing fire return intervals, while also accounting for finer-scale fire characteristics, such as patchiness, seasonality, severity, and intensity.