Real-world overall survival and characteristics of patients with ER-zero and ER-low HER2-negative breast cancer treated as triple-negative breast cancer: a Swedish population-based cohort studyResearch in context

Summary: Background: Estrogen receptor-low (ER-low) HER2-negative breast cancer has similar pathological and molecular characteristics as triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), and it is questionable whether it should be considered a separate entity. When the international guidelines lowered the cutoff for ER positivity to ≥1% in 2010, the ≥10% threshold was kept in Sweden. ER-low breast cancer (ER 1–9%) is thus in Sweden treated as TNBC. We aimed to describe patient and tumor characteristics, treatment patterns and overall survival in a Swedish population-based cohort of patients with ER-zero and ER-low HER2-negative breast cancer treated as TNBC. Methods: All TNBC cases diagnosed in Sweden 2008–2020 were included in a population-based cohort study. Patient, tumor and treatment characteristics were analyzed by ER-status (ER 0% vs 1–9%), and associations between subgroups compared using χ2 test. Survival endpoint was overall survival (OS), and Kaplan–Meier curves were estimated. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios comparing ER-low to ER-zero. Findings: Of the 5655 tumors, 90.1% had an ER expression of 0%, while 9.9% were ER-low. ER-low tumors were grade III in 69.4% (80.8% in ER-zero tumors, p-value = 0.001), with a median Ki67 of 60% (63% in ER-zero tumors, p-value = 0.005). There were no significant differences in given chemotherapy (p = 0.546). A pathological complete response (pCR) was achieved in 28.1% of ER-low tumors (25.1% in ER-zero tumors). In the unadjusted analysis of OS, women with ER-low disease had a borderline but not significantly better OS than those with ER-zero disease (HR 0.84 (95% CI 0.71–1.00), p = 0.052). ER-status 1–9% vs 0% was not associated with OS in the multivariable analysis (HR 1.11 (0.90–1.36)). Distant disease-free survival did not differ by ER-status 0% vs 1–9% (HR 0.97 for ER-zero vs ER-low (0.62–1.53), p = 0.905). After preoperative treatment, the impact of pCR for OS did not significantly differ between ER-zero or ER-low disease. Interpretation: ER-low HER2-negative breast cancer has characteristics and prognosis similar to TNBC, when treated in the same way. Therefore, it seems reasonable to use a ≥10% threshold for ER positivity. This would provide patients with ER-low tumors the same treatment opportunities as patients with TNBC, within studies and within clinical routine. Funding: This work was financially supported by Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA, in accordance with terms and conditions of a Master Collaboration Agreement between the company and Karolinska Institutet.