An adaptive transition probability matrix with quality seeds for cellular automata models

ABSTRACTThe cellular automata (CA) model is the predominant method for predicting land use and land cover (LULC) changes. The accuracy of this model critically depends on well-defined transition rules, which encapsulate the local dynamics of complex systems and facilitate the manifestation of organized global patterns. While current studies largely concentrate on land use transition matrices as core elements of these rules, exclusive reliance on these matrices is insufficient for capturing the full spectrum of land use change potential. Addressing this gap, our research introduces the adaptive transition probability matrix with quality seeds (ATPMS) model, which incorporates both the Markov model and the genetic algorithm (GA) into the traditional CA framework. Furthermore, an artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to determine land suitability. Implemented in Beijing, Wuhan, and the Pearl River Delta (PRD), our results indicate that the ATPMS-ANN-CA model surpasses the standard Markov-ANN-CA model in various validation metrics, displaying improvements in overall accuracy (OA) by 0.03% to 0.74% and figure of merit (FoM) by 3.67% to 63.14%. Additionally, the ATPMS-ANN-CA model excels in providing detailed landscape analysis.