Abstract PO1-17-07: Invasive disease-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in patients with hormone receptor−positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2−negative early breast cancer: a real-world analysis

Abstract Background: Although the goal of treatment is to improve overall survival (OS), in the adjuvant setting, disease-free survival (DFS) is an important endpoint because DFS risk reduction may reduce mortality risk. After introduction of the STEEP criteria, invasive DFS (iDFS) was adopted as an objective, well accepted primary endpoint in early breast cancer (EBC) trials. This analysis evaluated iDFS as a surrogate for OS in the HR+/HER2− EBC adjuvant treatment setting using real-world data. Methods: This retrospective analysis of the ConcertAI Patient360 database contains deidentified electronic medical records of patients (pts) treated at US academic and community oncology clinics from Jan 1, 1995 to Apr 30, 2021. The cohort included pts with AJCC (8th ed.) stage II-III (if IIIB or IIIC, confirmation was required on residual tumor status; pathological and/or clinical staging [pathological stage was prioritized if both existed in the record]) HR+/HER2− EBC who had surgery and initiated adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET); ovarian function suppression was permitted. iDFS (disease recurrence, metastasis, second primary tumor, or death) and OS (death due to any cause) were defined as time between ET start and first qualifying event. Pts not experiencing an event were censored at data cutoff or maximum follow-up (whichever was first) for iDFS and maximum follow-up for OS. Correlation analyses between individual iDFS and OS times were performed using Pearson and Spearman correlations and an iterative multiple imputation (IMI) algorithm. Subgroup analyses were conducted by first ET, menopausal status (imputed as 50 years if missing), stage, nodal status, prior (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy, and prior radiation. Results: In total, 3133 pts were analyzed. Mean (SD) age (index or ET initiation date) was 58.4 (12.4) years; 98.8% of pts were female, 29.9% were premenopausal, 80.9% had stage II disease, 57.1% had nodal involvement, and 41.6% and 48.8% had received (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Overall, 1854 and 653 pts received nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitors and tamoxifen only. The median follow-up time was 55.1 months for iDFS and 68.2 months for OS. The iDFS (1103 events [35.2%]) rates were 88.9% and 73.9% at 2 and 5 years. The OS (554 events [17.7%]) rates were 97.4% and 90.5% at 2 and 5 years. There was a significant and high correlation ( >0.85 based on IQWiG 2011 guidelines) between iDFS and OS in the overall cohort (Pearson 0.91, P< .001; Spearman 0.88, P< .001) with 82% of OS variation explained by iDFS (least square R2=0.82; Table). Results were confirmed by IMI rho (0.83, P< .001), which is interpreted as very strong ( >0.8). Results were consistent among all reported subgroups; Pearson and Spearman correlations exceeded 0.85 and IMI exceeded 0.8, except for pts with stage III disease where correlation remained high (Pearson 0.88, P< .001) or medium/strong (Spearman 0.84, P< .001; IMI 0.79, P< .001) and where most censoring was observed (38.2% of pts). Conclusions: This retrospective cohort analysis demonstrates a very strong pt-level surrogacy between iDFS and OS among pts with HR+/HER2− EBC treated in a real-world, US-based, academic and community setting. The findings complement the trial-level surrogacy from prior analyses using data from randomized controlled trials and support iDFS as a surrogate endpoint for OS in HR+/HER2− EBC trials. Citation Format: Stephanie Graff, Sara Tolaney, Lowell Hart, Pedram Razavi, Wolfgang Janni, Lee Schwartzberg, Andrii Danyliv, Juan Carlos Mora Payan, Ilia Ferrusi, Rishi Rajat Adhikary, Joyce O'Shaughnessy. Invasive disease-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in patients with hormone receptor−positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2−negative early breast cancer: a real-world analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO1-17-07.