A Comparison of Globally Applied Prognostic Risk Groups and the Prevalence of Metastatic Disease on Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Prostate Cancer

Background Various risk classification systems (RCSs) are used globally to stratify newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer (PCa) into prognostic groups. Objective To compare the predictive value of different prognostic subgroups (low-, intermediate-, and high-risk disease) within the RCSs for detecting metastatic disease on prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) for primary staging, and to assess whether further subdivision of subgroups would be beneficial. Design, setting, and participants Patients with newly diagnosed PCa, in whom PSMA-PET/CT was performed between 2017 and 2022, were studied retrospectively. Patients were stratified into risk groups based on four RCSs: European Association of Urology, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN), Cambridge Prognostic Group (CPG), and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis The prevalence of metastatic disease on PSMA-PET/CT was compared among the subgroups within the four RCSs. Results and limitations In total, 2630 men with newly diagnosed PCa were studied. Any metastatic disease was observed in 35% (931/2630) of patients. Among patients classified as having intermediate- and high-risk disease, the prevalence of metastases ranged from approximately 12% to 46%. Two RCSs further subdivided these groups. According to the NCCN, metastatic disease was observed in 5.8%, 13%, 22%, and 62% for favorable intermediate-, unfavorable intermediate-, high-, and very-high-risk PCa, respectively. Regarding the CPG, these values were 6.9%, 13%, 21%, and 60% for the corresponding risk groups. Conclusions This study underlines the importance of nuanced risk stratification, recommending the further subdivision of intermediate- and high-risk disease given the notable variation in the prevalence of metastatic disease. PSMA-PET/CT for primary staging should be reserved for patients with unfavorable intermediate- or higher-risk disease. Patient summary The use of various risk classification systems in patients with prostate cancer helps identify those at a higher risk of having metastatic disease on prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computed tomography for primary staging.