Evaluating the impact of historical climate and early human groups in the Araucaria Forest of eastern South America

It has been hypothesized that the Araucaria Forest in southern Brazil underwent expansions in the past, driven either by human groups or by climate fluctuations of the Holocene and Pleistocene. Fossil pollen records of the Parana pine Araucaria angustifolia, a dominant tree in that forest, provide some insights into when those may have occurred. Still, the timing of those expansions has never been estimated. To infer past range shifts and shed light on their main drivers, we employed next-generation DNA sequencing (ddRADseq), machine learning, and a comprehensive database of fossil pollen records into a study of historical demographic inference and paleo-distribution modeling of the Parana pine. We found that A. angustifolia comprises two populations expanding at different times: one in the Mantiqueira mountain chain, the other in the southern Brazilian plateau. The southern population began to expand during the Last Glacial Period similar to 70 kya, long before human arrival in South America. Still, genetic analyses support that humans later impacted this population, resulting in lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding, and high levels of gene flow over large distances with a weak pattern of isolation-by-distance. It is possible this resulted from human influence on seed dispersal and germination on the southern Brazilian plateau. The Mantiqueira population, in contrast, expanded only recently (similar to 3 kya). This timing coincides with Holocene climatic changes and human settlements established further south, although, to date, there is little archeological evidence of human impact in the Mantiqueira. In addition, multitemporal species distribution models built from a combination of present-day and pollen records infer a range expansion of the Araucaria Forest during glacial times until the cold humid HS1 event (similar to 16 kya), when the forest was most widespread, with no evidence of glacial refugia. The combination of genomic and spatial analyses suggests that both human and climatic controls played a role in the dynamics of the Araucaria Forest.