Exploring the green and low-carbon development pathway for an energy-intensive industrial park in China

Energy-intensive industrial parks (IPs) exhibit distinct characteristics, including a significant presence of resource-dependent industries, substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and severe air pollution. Focusing on energy-intensive IPs and promoting their green and low-carbon development is crucial to achieving high-quality development of IPs. Taking a typical energy-intensive industrial park (IP) in Henan Province—the Red Flag Cannel Industrial Park (RFCP) as the research object, this study applied structural adjustment model, scenario analysis, and synergistic effect evaluation methods to explore the green and low-carbon transition pathway. The GHG and air pollutant reduction potential and synergistic emission reduction effect of the RFCP were comprehensively analyzed under three measures of industrial structure adjustment, energy structure adjustment, and green technology implementation. The scenario analysis indicates that the integrated scenario (S3) shows the most significant emission reduction potential by 2030. Compared to the baseline scenario (S0), the CO2eq emission reduction is 11.66 Mt (53% reduction rate), and the emission reduction rate of air pollutants ranges from 36% to 68% in S3. The synergistic effect evaluation shows that industrial structure adjustment shows the best synergistic control effect on GHG and air pollutants in 2030. The result also indicates that industrial structure adjustment and energy structure adjustment are the main measures to reduce GHG and air pollutants of IPs. Finally, some policy recommendations regarding the transformation direction of energy-intensive IPs were proposed. This study will provide valuable references for the green and low-carbon development of energy-intensive IPs.