Testosterone and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in older men: further analysis of the ASPREE study

Background A cardiovascular safety trial of testosterone in men with cardiovascular risk factors or disease found no difference in rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or death but noted more atrial fibrillation (AF) events in testosterone-treated men. We investigated the relationship between endogenous testosterone concentrations with risk of developing AF in healthy older men. Methods Post-hoc analysis of 4570 male participants in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study. Men were aged ≥ 70 years, had no history of cardiovascular disease (including AF), thyroid disease, prostate cancer, dementia, or life-threatening illnesses. Risk of AF was modelled using Cox proportional hazards regression. Findings Median (IQR) age was 73.7 (71.6–77.1) years and median (IQR) follow-up 4.4 (3.3–5.5) years, during which 286 men developed AF (15.3 per 1000 participant-years). Baseline testosterone was higher in men who developed incident AF compared men who did not [17.0 (12.4–21.2) vs 15.7 (12.2–20.0) nmol/L]. There was a non-linear association of baseline testosterone with incident AF. The risk for AF was higher in men with testosterone in quintiles (Q) 4&5 (Q4:Q3, HR = 1.91; 95%CI = 1.29–2.83 and Q5:Q3HR = 1.98; 95%CI = 1.33–2.94). Results were similar after excluding men who experienced MACE or heart failure during follow-up. Interpretation Circulating testosterone concentrations within the high-normal range are independently associated with an increased risk of incident AF amongst healthy older men. This suggests that AF may be an adverse consequence of high-normal total testosterone concentrations. Funding National Institute on Aging and National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health; Australian Government (NHMRC, CSIRO); Monash University; and AlfredHealth.