Research framework for low-carbon urban development: A case study of Shanghai, China

CO2 emissions from energy consumption, especially in cities, are significant contributors to the global greenhouse effect. Cities are playing an increasingly important role in mitigating climate change. At present, there is a lack of a comprehensive CO2 emission research framework to provide appropriate guidance for the low-carbon development of cities. This study explores the pathways for reducing CO2 in cities by establishing a systematic CO2 emission research framework, which is applied to Shanghai as the research area. The framework (1) decomposes CO2 emission factors using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), (2) analyses the decoupling state using the Tapio decoupling (TD) model, (3) evaluates decoupling efforts for driving factors, and (4) predicts future CO2 emissions through Low the Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. The decomposition results showed that economic effect was the primary driver of CO2 emissions in Shanghai. Energy intensity was the primary factor for reducing CO2 emissions, and population scale was the primary factor for reducing emissions during the COVID-19. Moreover, the decoupling state of Shanghai gradually improved, which promoted the decoupling of the industrial and transportation sector, but suppressed the decoupling of the trade sector. The average decoupling effort index of energy intensity is as high as 0.84, which plays an important role in decoupling in Shanghai. Scenario simulations showed that strict and diversified policy implementation can effectively reduce CO2 emissions and ensure Shanghai realizes peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2025. Finally, policy recommendations were proposed based on the results. This study provides a reference for the development of low-carbon cities.