Water vapor content prediction based on neural network model selection and optimal fusion

Accurately predicting the evolution of water vapor content has significant practical engineering implications for accurately determining the timing of artificial rain enhancement operations. However, the nonlinear, unstable, and chaotic nature of water vapor content presents considerable challenges to its precise prediction. To address this, our research proposes a combined prediction model, based on a neural network model selection mechanism (TE Anns Avo) and small sample water vapor content data observed by microwave radiometers in the Zhengzhou area. This combined model utilizes seven neural network models as candidate models and dynamically selects the optimal three models as the central prediction components via evaluation indicators. Additionally, we employ the maximum information coefficient method to preserve the optimal input features and use a time-varying rate wave mode decomposition algorithm as the front-end processing module. This module processes the original water vapor content sequence and extracts relevant latent information. Finally, we incorporate the African vulture intelligent optimization algorithm as the backend processing component to optimize the weighted combination coefficients, achieving the integration of prediction results. Experimental results reveal that the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) of the TE Anns Avo model on three types of water vapor content datasets are 0.208%, 0.876%, and 0.369%, respectively. This suggests a predictive performance improvement of at least 10% compared to existing models. The prediction model proposed in this study not only establishes an accurate and reliable mechanism for predicting water vapor content but also offers more comprehensive decision support information for weather modification operations.