A positive answer on the existence of correlations between positive earthquake magnitude differences
arxiv(2024)
摘要
The identification of patterns in space, time, and magnitude, which could
potentially encode the subsequent earthquake magnitude, represents a
significant challenge in earthquake forecasting. A pivotal aspect of this
endeavor involves the search for correlations between earthquake magnitudes, a
task greatly hindered by the incompleteness of instrumental catalogs. A novel
strategy to address this challenge is provided by the groundbreaking
observation by Van der Elst (Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,
2021), that positive magnitude differences, under certain conditions, remain
unaffected by incompleteness. In this letter we adopt this strategy which
provides a clear and unambiguous proof regarding the existence of correlations
between subsequent positive magnitude differences. Our results are consistent
with a time-dependent b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter law, significantly
enhancing existing models for seismic forecasting.
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