Identification of BGN positive fibroblasts as a driving factor for colorectal cancer and development of its related prognostic model combined with machine learning

Numerous studies have indicated that cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) play a crucial role in the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, there are still many unknowns regarding the exact role of CAF subtypes in CRC. The data for this study were obtained from bulk, single-cell, and spatial transcriptomic sequencing data. Bioinformatics analysis, in vitro experiments, and machine learning methods were employed to investigate the functional characteristics of CAF subtypes and construct prognostic models. Our study demonstrates that Biglycan (BGN) positive cancer-associated fibroblasts (BGN + Fib) serve as a driver in colorectal cancer (CRC). The proportion of BGN + Fib increases gradually with the progression of CRC, and high infiltration of BGN + Fib is associated with poor prognosis in terms of overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in CRC. Downregulation of BGN expression in cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) significantly reduces migration and proliferation of CRC cells. Among 101 combinations of 10 machine learning algorithms, the StepCox[both] + plsRcox combination was utilized to develop a BGN + Fib derived risk signature (BGNFRS). BGNFRS was identified as an independent adverse prognostic factor for CRC OS and RFS, outperforming 92 previously published risk signatures. A Nomogram model constructed based on BGNFRS and clinical-pathological features proved to be a valuable tool for predicting CRC prognosis. In summary, our study identified BGN + Fib as drivers of CRC, and the derived BGNFRS was effective in predicting the OS and RFS of CRC patients.