Methodological Reconstruction of Historical Landslide Tsunamis Using Bayesian Inference
arxiv(2024)
摘要
Indonesia is one of the world's most densely populated regions and lies among
the epicenters of Earth's greatest natural hazards. Effectively reducing the
disaster potential of these hazards through resource allocation and
preparedness first requires an analysis of the risk factors of the region.
Since destructive tsunamis present one of the most eminent dangers to coastal
communities, understanding their sources and geological history is necessary to
determine the potential future risk.
Inspired by results from Cummins et al. 2020, and previous efforts that
identified source parameters for earthquake-generated tsunamis, we consider
landslide-generated tsunamis. This is done by constructing a probability
distribution of potential landslide sources based on anecdotal observations of
the 1852 Banda Sea tsunami, using Bayesian inference and scientific computing.
After collecting over 100,000 samples (simulating 100,000 landslide induced
tsunamis), we conclude that a landslide event provides a reasonable match to
the tsunami reported in the anecdotal accounts. However, the most viable
landslides may push the boundaries of geological plausibility. Future work
creating a joint landslide-earthquake model may compensate for the weaknesses
associated with an individual landslide or earthquake source event.
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