Modeling of in support of long-term pathways and EU policies for bending the curve of biodiversity loss

Reversing the declines in biodiversity trends is a widely adopted goal, reflected in both the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and the EU 2030 Biodiversity Strategy. In this presentation, we will show two examples of how models and scenarios can be mobilized to provide support to achieving these goals in the context of the broader sustainable agenda. In a first example, multiple economic and biodiversity models are used to assess long-term, global scale, pathways aiming to explore whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion reverse global biodiversity losses (Leclere et al, 2020). The results show that i) immediate efforts of unprecedented ambition and coordination could enable reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion, and ii) that an integrated approach, combining increased protection and restoration efforts with sustainable production and consumption measures, is essential to not only enable a bending of global biodiversity trends before 2050, but also limit trade-offs and harness synergies with other sustainable goals. In a second example, we will demonstrate how models and scenarios are also mobilized to support policy design at the EU scale, with an application focusing on assessing the land use, LULUCF emissions and biodiversity implications of EU climate (e.g., Fitfor55 package and LULUCF regulation) and biodiversity (e.g., Nature Restoration Law) and their interactions.