INSPIRE Game: Integration of vulnerability in impact-based forecasting of urban floods

Abstract. Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and flash floods incur huge damage to life and property in urban cities. Precipitation forecasts help predict extreme events; however, they have limitations in anticipating the impacts of extreme events. Impact-based forecasts (IBFs), when integrated with information of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, can anticipate the impacts and suggest emergency decisions. In this study, we present a serious game experiment, called the INSPIRE game, that evaluates the roles of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability in a flash flood situation triggered by EPE. Participants make decisions in two rounds based on the extreme precipitation and flood that occurred over Mumbai on 26 July, 2005. In the first round, participants make decisions for the forthcoming EPE scheduled for later in the afternoon. In the second round, they make decisions for the compound events of extreme precipitation, river flood and high tide. Decisions are collected from 123 participants, predominantly Researchers, PhDs and Masters students. Results show that participant’s use of information to make decisions was based on the severity of the situation. A larger proportion of participants used precipitation forecast and exposure to make correct decisions in the first round, while used precipitation forecast and vulnerability in the second. Higher levels of education and research experience enabled participants to discriminate between the severity of the event and use the appropriate information set presented to them. Additionally, between the choice of qualitative and quantitative information of rainfall, 64% of the participants preferred qualitative over quantitative. Finally, we discuss the relevance and potential of vulnerability integration in IBFs using inferences derived through the serious game.