Impact of climate change on habitat suitability of an endemic herbivore [Hydrothassa anatolica (Chrysomelidae: Chrysomelinae)] in Türkiye

AbstractThe rich floristic and faunistic diversity of Türkiye hosts numerous endemic species, particularly in the southeastern region. Climate change could exert negative impacts on the distribution of endemic species and cause their extinction. Hydrothassa anatolica Şahin & Özdikmen, 2019 (Chrysomelidae: Chrysomelinae) is an endemic species distributed in the Hakkari province of Türkiye. This study assessed the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of H. anatolica using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The occurrence records of the species were collected through surveys in Yüksekova district of Hakkari province during 2022 and 2023 and used in the modeling exercise. Habitat suitability of H. anatolica was predicted for 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP1-2.6 (low greenhouse gas emissions scenario) and SSP5-8.5 (very high greenhouse gas emissions scenario). A total 12 occurrence records and 9 bioclimatic variables were used to predict the habitat suitability under current and future climatic conditions. The results indicated that bio 6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) bio18 (precipitation of warmest quarter) will mediate the distribution of H. anatolica under current and future climatic conditions. The areas with wet summers and cold winters were predicted highly suitable for H. anatolica. The model predicted that the species will expand its distribution range in the future under both climate change scenarios.