An Analysis of New York Data: Fluctuations in Hospital Capacity Are Driven by Variability in Elective Admissions and Discharge Activity

Background Hospital overcrowding compromises patient safety. The contribution of variability in admissions and discharges to overall hospital capacity needs to be quantified. This study describes the statewide day-to-day fluctuation in the volume of hospitalized patients, the variability and pattern of hospital admissions and discharges throughout the week, and the contribution of Emergency Department (ED) vs. elective (non -ED) admissions and discharges to the overall variability in the system across the week. Methodology This is a retrospective analysis of the New York State Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database, in which all New York healthcare facilities submit patient -level data monthly. The study period was from January 01 to December 31, 2015. Outcomes included total volumes of admissions and discharges and length of stay sorted by patient origin (ED vs. non -ED admits (elective)) and service type (medicine vs. surgery) by day of the week. Results We studied 1,692,090 hospital admissions. Admissions were highest on Mondays and Tuesdays and steadily decreased throughout the week. There was little variability in the ED admissions throughout the week. Surgical elective admissions had significant variability throughout the week, with higher admissions at the beginning of the week. There was a significant difference (p < 0.01) between admissions on weekdays vs. weekends. Discharges increased from Monday to Friday, with a dramatic drop on the weekends, for both ED and elective pathways. Systemwide, on Monday, hospitals were 21% above the mean volume, and on Fridays, hospitals were 32% below the mean volume. Conclusions Overall hospital capacity shows dramatic variability throughout the week, driven primarily by elective admissions and discharges from any source throughout the week. Because elective admissions are schedulable, hospitals can reduce variability by smoothing scheduling. Increased weekend discharges will also improve capacity.