Cardio-ankle vascular index for predicting cardiovascular morbimortality and determinants for its progression in the prospective advanced approach to arterial stiffness (TRIPLE-A-Stiffness) study

Background The cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) measure of arterial stiffness is associated with prevalent cardiovascular risk factors, while its predictive value for cardiovascular events remains to be established. The aim was to determine associations of CAVI with cardiovascular morbimortality (primary outcome) and all-cause mortality (secondary outcome), and to establish the determinants of CAVI progression. Methods TRIPLE-A-Stiffness, an international multicentre prospective longitudinal study, enrolled >2000 subjects ≥40 years old at 32 centres from 18 European countries. Of these, 1250 subjects (55% women) were followed for a median of 3.82 (2.81–4.69) years. Findings Unadjusted cumulative incidence rates of outcomes according to CAVI stratification were higher in highest stratum (CAVI > 9). Cox regression with adjustment for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors revealed that CAVI was associated with increased cardiovascular morbimortality (HR 1.25 per 1 increase; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.03–1.51) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.37 per 1 increase; 95% CI: 1.10–1.70) risk in subjects ≥60 years. In ROC analyses, CAVI optimal threshold was 9.25 (c-index 0.598; 0.542–0.654) and 8.30 (c-index 0.565; 0.512–0.618) in subjects ≥ or <60 years, respectively, to predict increased CV morbimortality. Finally, age, mean arterial blood pressure, anti-diabetic and lipid-lowering treatment were independent predictors of yearly CAVI progression adjusted for baseline CAVI. Interpretation The present study identified additional value for CAVI to predict outcomes after adjustment for CV risk factors, in particular for subjects ≥60 years. CAVI progression may represent a modifiable risk factor by treatments. Funding International Society of Vascular Health (ISVH) and Fukuda Denshi, Japan.