A Biomarker-Based Diagnostic Model for Cardiac Dysfunction in Childhood Cancer Survivors

Background Childhood cancer survivors at risk for heart failure undergo lifelong echocardiographic surveillance. Previous studies reported the limited diagnostic accuracy of N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) in detecting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. However, potential enhanced diagnostic accuracy through the combination of biomarkers and clinical characteristics has been suggested. Objectives The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a diagnostic model that combines cardiac biomarkers with clinical characteristics for effectively ruling in or ruling out LV dysfunction in childhood cancer survivors. Methods A multicenter cross-sectional study included 1,334 survivors (median age 34.2 years) and 278 siblings (median age 36.8 years). Logistic regression models were developed and validated through bootstrapping, combining biomarkers with clinical characteristics. Results Abnormal NT-proBNP levels were observed in 22.1% of survivors compared with 5.4% of siblings, whereas hs-cTnT levels exceeding 10 ng/L were uncommon in both survivors (5.9%) and siblings (5.0%). The diagnostic models demonstrated improvement upon the addition of NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT to clinical characteristics, resulting in an increased C statistic from 0.69 to 0.73 for LV ejection fraction (LVEF) <50% and a more accurate prediction of more severe LV dysfunction, with the C statistic increasing from 0.80 to 0.86 for LVEF <45%. For LVEF <50% (prevalence 10.9%), 16.9% of survivors could be effectively ruled out with high sensitivity (95.4%; 95% CI: 90.4%-99.3%) and negative predictive value (97.5%; 95% CI: 94.6%-99.7%). Similarly, for LVEF <45% (prevalence 3.4%), 53.0% of survivors could be ruled out with moderate to high sensitivity (91.1%; 95% CI: 79.2%-100%) and high negative predictive value (99.4%; 95% CI: 98.7%-100%). Conclusions The biomarker-based diagnostic model proves effective in ruling out LV dysfunction, offering the potential to minimize unnecessary surveillance echocardiography in childhood cancer survivors. External validation is essential to confirm these findings. (Early Detection of Cardiac Dysfunction in Childhood Cancer Survivors; A DCOG LATER Study; https://onderzoekmetmensen.nl/nl/trial/23641)