Global-scale future climate projections from ACCESS model contributions to CMIP6

This paper describes projected climate evolution and outcomes simulated by the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) to varying future scenarios, including of socio-ecological and technological development, and land-use and land-cover change. Contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) from the climate model version, ACCESS-CM2, and the fully coupled Earth System Model version, ACCESS-ESM1.5, are presented for the near-future (2020–2050), 21st Century (2000–2100) and longer-term (2100–2300). Scenario differentiation in the near future is aided by high-density sampling in large-ensemble ACCESS-ESM1.5, more clearly illustrating projected 2020–2050 global changes in temperature, precipitation and aerosol optical depth. Over the 21st Century, the heightened equilibrium climate sensitivity of ACCESS-CM2 relative to ACCESS-ESM1.5 results in persistently greater surface air temperature increases and larger amplified polar warming, leading to more rapid sea ice decline. Although weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs in both models, 21st Century recovery under aggressive-mitigation and overshoot scenarios only occurs in ACCESS-ESM1.5; AMOC weakening continues under all scenarios in ACCESS-CM2 through to 2100. Longer-term climate response from simulations extending to 2300 depict opposing hemispheric responses of polar surface air temperatures and sea ice in both models under scenarios based on aggressive mitigation action, leading to a resurgence of surface ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice decline. Under a future scenario where development is driven by continued fossil fuel use, both AMOC and Antarctic Bottom Water Formation continue to weaken across 2200–2300 in both models, reaching such low levels in ACCESS-CM2 that these pivotal components of global meridional overturning circulation could be considered essentially to have ceased.