Smoking timing, genetic susceptibility and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes: A cohort study from the UK Biobank

Aim: To prospectively assess the association of smoking timing with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and examine whether smoking amount or genetic susceptibility might modify the relationship. Materials and Methods: A total of 294 815 participants without diabetes from the UK Biobank, including non-smokers and smokers with data on the time from waking to first cigarette, were included. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between smoking timing and the risk of incident T2D. Results: During a median follow-up time of 12 years, a total of 9937 incident cases of T2D were documented. Compared with non-smokers, a shorter time from waking to first cigarette was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident T2D (P for trend < .001). In the fully adjusted model, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval) associated with smoking timing were 1.46 (1.17-1.81) for more than 2 hours, 1.51 (1.21-1.87) for 1-2 hours, 1.58 (1.34-1.85) for 30-60 minutes, 1.86 (1.57-2.21) for 5-15 minutes and 2.01 (1.60-2.54) for less than 5 minutes. We found that even among those who reported being light smokers, those with the shortest time from waking to first cigarette had a 105% higher risk of T2D with an HR of 2.05 (1.52-2.76), which was comparable with heavy smokers. The genetic risk score for T2D did not modify this association (P-interaction = .51). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that shorter time from waking to first cigarette is significantly associated with a higher risk of incident T2D.