Synergy or Strife? Integrated assessment of economy–resource–environment development in Yangtze River Delta region based on material flow analysis and system dynamics

Under the background of tighter resource constraints and prominent environmental pollution, regional development is endowed with new connotations and implications. Whether the economy–resources–environment system can achieve coordinated development is a significant indicator in judging high-quality regional development. Taking the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) as an example, this study established a material flow account system, revealed the resource and environmental pressure and operation efficiency of the regional economic system, and clarified the evolutionary trend of regional economy–resource–environment collaborative development. Under the combination of material flow analysis (MFA) and system dynamics (SD), the MFA-SD model was constructed. Four scenarios including business as usual (BAU), economically sustainable degrowth (ESD), economic accelerating development (EAD) and resource and environmental protection (REP) were set up to analyze the optimal path of regional coordinated development. The results indicated that: (1) during the year from 2006 to 2020, Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed an overall rising trend in total material requirements (TMR), with average annual growth rates of 5.32, 5.08 and 2.56