Scenario-based multi-criteria evaluation of sector coupling-based technology pathways for decarbonization with varying degrees of disruption

The concept of sector coupling is gaining international attention as a means to drive further decarbonization. Our study develops and simulates 27 sector coupling technology combinations based on assumptions derived from the literature and then evaluates their efficacy in meeting Germany's CO2 emission targets for 2030, 2045, and 2050, respectively. Our findings reveal that only ambitious technological pathways involving disruptive innovations in multiple sectors offer realistic pathways for achieving the country's decarbonization targets. Using a scoring system that incorporates technical and socioeconomic indicators, we reveal the relation between reductions in CO2 emissions and multi-criteria-based scores assigned to specific sector coupling scenarios. Our results favor emission reductions from both a socio-economic perspective and a purely economic one, and they highlight the benefits of disruptive sectoral linkages in achieving emission reduction targets. Nevertheless, none of the technology combinations analyzed here meet the more ambitious German emission targets set in 2021.