Methodological questions in researching the mortality of statistically variable ethnic groups in Serbia

Questions of ethnic identity in multicultural societies are of particular importance today and are reflected in various ethnostatistical and ethnodemographic studies. In addition to the population census, an equally important source of data for ethnodemographic research is the vital statistics that has been recorded in Serbia since the first half of the 19th century, but the distribution of data by nationality has only been available since the 1950s. In the post-war period, vital statistics underwent methodological changes, particularly between 1965 and 1970, when the publication of vital events by nationality was suspended, making it difficult to study the demographics of those ethnic groups that experienced negative natural increase for the first time during this period. The second problem is related to the application of subjective criteria in the ethnic declaration of vital events, which directly causes a statistical discrepancy between the declared ethnic identity of the mother at birth and the statement of the death reporter of the same person. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in statistically variable (floating) ethnic groups whose population size fluctuates due to their frequent change of attitude when stating their own ethnic identity in official statistics. Therefore, in this paper we will focus on the study of the quality of ethnostatistical data of vital statistics using the example of a comparative analysis of selected mortality indicators according to the period 1970-2020 which directly influenced the pronounced fluctuations in the dynamics of the natural movement of certain ethnic groups. This will show whether vital statistics data can be accepted and used without restriction as a quantitative basis for demographic and other research.