Building confidence in exploratory models

This article focuses on simulation modeling. Some of it may have implications for studies and interventions employing only mapping techniques and qualitative analyses, but that is not its intent. Its special focus is on simulation modeling that strives for important contributions without the rigorous use of sophisticated analytic data-fitting tools. That focus probably characterizes the vast majority of the formal model-based work in the field of system dynamics. I have divided the article into five sections: Motivation, Priors, Problems inherent in exploratory modeling, Efforts to build confidence in exploratory modeling, and Conclusions.