Application of General Unified Threshold Models to Predict Time-Varying Survival of Mayfly Nymphs Exposed to Three Neonicotinoids

Pesticide exposure patterns tested in laboratory bioassays often do not match real-world pesticide exposure profiles in edge-of-field waterbodies. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models are therefore increasingly used, as they allow for predictions of the toxic effects under actual time-variable field exposures. The TKTD models from the General Unified Threshold models of Survival (GUTS), for example, are considered ready for use by regulators for calculating the survival rates for any time-variable exposure profile. However, questions remain regarding their predictive power for compounds showing increased toxicity over time, such as neonicotinoid insecticides. The aim of the present study was therefore to compare the GUTS-predicted 28 d toxicity values of three neonicotinoids (imidacloprid, clothianidin, and thiamethoxam) for the common New Zealand mayfly genus Deleatidium spp. with those observed in a previously published study. Overall, the GUTS modeling results underestimated the toxicity values derived experimentally. From the three neonicotinoids, clothianidin showed the best fit between the estimated and observed 28 d LC50 (median-lethal-concentration) values. Shortcomings of the modeling exercise, future research needs, and implications for the application of GUTS models in regulatory risk assessment are discussed.