Dependence of evolution of Cyanobacteria superiority on temperature and nutrient use efficiency in a meso-eutrophic plateau lake

Algal blooms in lakes have been a challenging environmental issue globally under the dual influence of human activity and climate change. Considerable progress has been made in the study of phytoplankton dynamics in lakes; The long-term in situ evolution of dominant bloom-forming cyanobacteria in meso-eutrophic plateau lakes, however, lacks systematic research. Here, the monthly parameters from 12 sampling sites during the period of 1997–2022 were utilized to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving the superiority of bloom-forming cyanobacteria in Erhai, a representative meso-eutrophic plateau lake. The findings indicate that global warming will intensify the risk of cynaobacteria blooms, prolong Microcystis blooms in autumn to winter or even into the following year, and increase the superiority of filamentous Planktothrix and Cylindrospermum in summer and autumn. High RUETN (1.52 Biomass/TN, 0.95–3.04 times higher than other species) under N limitation (TN < 0.5 mg/L, TN/TP < 22.6) in the meso-eutrophic Lake Erhai facilitates the superiority of Dolichospermum. High RUETP (43.8 Biomass/TP, 2.1–10.2 times higher than others) in TP of 0.03–0.05 mg/L promotes the superiority of Planktothrix and Cylindrospermum. We provided a novel insight into the formation of Planktothrix and Cylindrospermum superiority in meso-eutrophic plateau lake with low TP (0.005–0.07 mg/L), which is mainly influenced by warming, high RUETP and their vertical migration characteristics. Therefore, we posit that although the obvious improvement of lake water quality is not directly proportional to the control efficacy of cyanobacterial blooms, the evolutionary shift in cyanobacteria population structure from Microcystis, which thrives under high nitrogen and phosphorus conditions, to filamentous cyanobacteria adapted to low nitrogen and phosphorus levels may serve as a significant indicator of water quality amelioration. Therefore, we suggest that the risk of filamentous cyanobacteria blooms in the meso-eutrophic plateau lake should be given attention, particularly in light of improving water quality and global warming, to ensure drinking water safety.