Effect of key economic uncertainties on the techno-economic performance of the production of high energy-content jet fuel blending components derived from bio-ethanol

Commercial aviation is adopting renewable biofuels to counter carbon emissions. A high-performance jet-fuel blend derived from biomass-derived ethanol is one approach to mitigate fuel consumption. However, there are many economic uncertainties associated with planning and operating a biorefinery. This study provides a techno-economic assessment for planning an alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) facility. A techno-economic assessment is conducted to estimate the key economic performance metrics of the facility when operated at an industrial scale. For different ATJ process configurations and setpoints, a stochastic analysis of conversion efficiency using Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to understand conversion rate uncertainty. To identify the optimal operational setting for maximizing economic performance, the effects of conversion rate, ethanol price, and jet fuel price on profit are assessed through a sensitivity analysis, which follows a design of experiments approach. The results indicate that the facility holds significant economic promise in industrial practice. This study proposes an analytical framework that provides insights into the production planning for sustainable aviation fuels.