Socioeconomic deprivation and premature mortality in Germany, 1998-2021 An ecological study with what-if scenarios of inequality reduction

Background. Earlier mortality in socioeconomically disadvantaged population groups represents an extreme manifestation of health inequity. This study examines the extent, time trends, and mitigation potentials of area-level socioeconomic inequalities in premature mortality in Germany. Methods. Nationwide data from official cause-of-death statistics were linked at the district level with official population data and the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation (GISD). Age-standardized mortality rates before the age of 75 were calculated stratified by sex and deprivation quintile. A what-if analysis with counterfactual scenarios was applied to calculate how much lower premature mortality would be overall if socioeconomic mortality inequalities were reduced. Results. Men and women in the highest deprivation quintile had a 43% and 33% higher risk of premature death, respectively, than those in the lowest deprivation quintile of the same age. Higher mortality rates with increasing deprivation were found for cardiovascular and cancer mortality, but also for other causes of death. Socioeconomic mortality inequalities had started to increase before the COVID-19 pandemic and further exacerbated in the first years of the pandemic. If all regions had the same mortality rate as those in the lowest deprivation quintile, premature mortality would be 13% lower overall. Discussion. The widening gap in premature mortality between deprived and affluent regions emphasizes that creating equivalent living conditions across Germany is also an important field of action for reducing health inequity.