Cross Potential Selection: A Proposal for Optimizing Crossing Combinations in Recurrent Selection Based on the Ability of Future Inbred Lines

In plant breeding programs, rapid production of novel varieties is highly desirable. Genomic selection allows the selection of superior individuals based on genomic estimated breeding values. However, it is worth noting that superior individuals may not always be superior parents. The choice of the crossing pair significantly influences the genotypic value of the resulting progeny. This study introduced a new strategy for selecting crossing pairs, termed Cross Potential Selection (CPS), designed to expedite the production of novel varieties. The CPS assesses the potential of each crossing pair to generate a novel variety. It considers the segregation of each crossing pair and computes the expected genotypic values of the top-performing individuals, assuming that the progeny distribution of genotypic values follows a normal distribution. We simulated a 10-year breeding program to compare CPS with three other selection strategies. CPS consistently demonstrated the highest genetic improvements among the four strategies in early cycles. In particular, during the middle cycles of the breeding program, CPS exhibited the highest genetic improvement of 73% of the 300 independent breeding simulations. In a long-term breeding scheme, some progeny distributions of genotypic values may deviate from normal distribution, affecting the efficiency of CPS. Nevertheless, compared with the other three strategies, CPS achieved significant short-term genetic improvements. In conclusion, CPS holds substantial promise for enhancing the efficiency of plant breeding programs.