Changes in reef tourism’s adaptive capacity after severe climate disturbances

Summary: Knowledge about adaptive capacity and its determinants has increased significantly over the last decade. However, most research on adaptive capacity has been static, not considering how adaptive capacity might change over time, particularly after severe disturbances. We studied the adaptive capacity dynamics of Asian-Pacific reef tourism operators affected by coral bleaching and tropical cyclones compared with a control group with non-affected operators. We found that impacts from tropical cyclones were associated with frequent changes in adaptive capacity. Notably, we found a reduction in tangible attributes (assets and flexibility) of adaptive capacity, whereas intangible attributes (agency and social organization) increased. Our findings provide evidence that adaptive capacity is not necessarily a slowly changing variable; rather, adaptive capacity can change rapidly and in complex ways following severe climate impacts. Understanding adaptive capacity dynamics can support adaptation programs by showing where changes in capacity are most likely to occur after severe climate impacts. Science for society: Understanding adaptive capacity is important to assess whether and how people will be able to deal with climate (and other) disturbances. Most studies on adaptive capacity have not, however, considered how it might change over time, especially after severe shocks. Here, we show that the adaptive capacity of individuals can change rapidly after they are affected by a severe disturbance. Reef tourism operators affected by tropical cyclones experienced reductions in their assets and flexibility (boats, savings, and accessible reef sites), while their levels of agency (management participation) and social organization (ties to research institutions) increased. We found less frequent changes in adaptive capacity following impacts from coral bleaching. Our study informs efforts to build adaptive capacity by providing insights into which components of adaptive capacity may be most vulnerable to disturbance, as well as by demonstrating how bolstering one component may impact others.