Climate change dominates the increasing exposure of global population to compound heatwave and humidity extremes in the future

Climate Dynamics(2024)

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摘要
Under global warming, compound event arises increasing attract as it can lead to a growing impact on water resources management, human society, and ecosystem, especially for the compound heatwave and humidity extremes (CHHE), which can exert harmful influence on human health. However, the understanding of changes in CHHE both in the historical and future, and attribution of global population exposure to CHHE are far from enough. In this study, we selected the wet-bulb temperature (Tw) to define the CHHE, and used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data to investigate future changes in global CHHE. Furthermore, we quantified the relative contributions of population, climate change and their interaction effect to the change in population exposure to CHHE. We found that all scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) show an increasing trend of CHHE. For SSP5-8.5, the global mean Tw will increase by 7 °C, and the northern North America and central Africa experience warming approaching 10 °C by the end of twenty-first century. Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, large equatorial regions will witness Tw exceeding 35 °C resulting in an exposure of 105 million person-days. All the scenarios presented an increase in population exposure to CHHE, which is mainly contributed by climate change (50
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关键词
Climate change,Compound heatwave and humidity extremes,CMIP6
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