Data-driven classification of cognitively normal and mild cognitive impairment subtypes predicts progression in the NACC dataset

INTRODUCTION: Data-driven neuropsychological methods can identify mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subtypes with stronger associations to dementia risk factors than conventional diagnostic methods. METHODS: Cluster analysis used neuropsychological data from participants without dementia (mean age = 71.6 years) in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) Uniform Data Set (n = 26,255) and the "normal cognition" subsample (n = 16,005). Survival analyses examined MCI or dementia progression. RESULTS: Five clusters were identified: "Optimal" cognitively normal (oCN; 13.2%), "Typical" CN (tCN; 28.0%), Amnestic MCI (aMCI; 25.3%), Mixed MCI-Mild (mMCI-Mild; 20.4%), and Mixed MCI-Severe (mMCI-Severe; 13.0%). Progression to dementia differed across clusters (oCN < tCN < aMCI < mMCI-Mild < mMCI-Severe). Cluster analysis identified more MCI cases than consensus diagnosis. In the "normal cognition" subsample, five clusters emerged: High-All Domains (High-All; 16.7%), Low-Attention/Working Memory (Low-WM; 22.1%), Low-Memory (36.3%), Amnestic MCI (16.7%), and Non-amnestic MCI (naMCI; 8.3%), with differing progression rates (High-All < Low-WM = Low-Memory < aMCI < naMCI). DISCUSSION: Our data-driven methods outperformed consensus diagnosis by providing more precise information about progression risk and revealing heterogeneity in cognition and progression risk within the NACC "normal cognition" group.