Forecasting Shifts in Hoosiers’ Travel Demand and Behavior

The changing landscape of transportation technology and traveler behavior, accelerated by recent events like COVID-19, has led to significant shifts in travel demand and vehicle miles traveled in Indiana. This study seeks to understand the long-term implications of these changes and their potential impact on passenger, freight, and micro-mobility movements across the state. To achieve this objective, this project focused on forecasting future transportation demand conditions and carrying out long-range scenario planning by accomplishing four tasks: forecasting travel demand shifts based on location-based data, evaluating medium-term inter- and intra-urban transportation demand shifts, forecasting county-level industry shifts using scenario-based growth models, and providing recommendations and guidance to the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) based on the study results. Results offer improved planning for infrastructure investments and operations, the incorporation of emerging technologies into transportation planning processes, and an enhanced understanding of passenger and freight movements at the statewide and regional levels. Deliverables from this study include valuable tools and models that can help INDOT navigate potential transportation system changes and accommodate the evolving needs of the future.