Elevation modulates the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian Cerrado flora

Aim: Climate change is causing species distribution to shift across the globe. Lowland taxa are moving upslope with warming, while montane species face extinction. We tested the hypothesis that elevation controls the future distribution of plant species in the Brazilian Cerrado, home of 3.5% of the Earth's flowering plants (c. 5000 endemic species) in just 0.4% of the planet's land surface. Location: Cerrado region in Brazil. Methods: We estimated geographical range shifts of 7398 angiosperm species by 2040 using species distribution models (SDMs). We stacked the SDMs to derive the temporal variations of species richness and composition over the Cerrado. Results: Our results show that between 50 and 52% of the Cerrado flora will experience net range loss due to climate change. While montane species were more likely to lose range, range gain was more common among lowland taxa. We estimate that 68-73% of the Cerrado extent will face net species losses by 2040. Net species loss was more likely to occur below 743-798 metres above sea level. Virtually the entire Cerrado will experience some level of species replacement due to climate change and species turnover will intensify as elevation increases. Main Conclusions: Our findings suggest that upslope migration allows lowland plants to track climate change ('winners'), whereas montane taxa do not ('losers'). As species move upslope, lowlands become local extinction hotspots and mountains harbour novel plant assemblages. Therefore, elevation exerts a central role in shaping Cerrado flora responses to climate change and potentially the long-term efficacy of conservation and restoration efforts.