Predictors of unsustained measurable residual disease negativity in transplant-eligible patients with multiple myeloma

The role of measurable residual disease (MRD) negativity as a biomarker to stop treatment is being investigated in transplant-eligible patients with multiple myeloma (MM). Thus, it is important to identify risk factors of MRD resurgence and/or progressive disease (PD) among patients achieving undetectable MRD to avoid undertreating them. Here, we studied 267 newly diagnosed transplant-eligible patients with MM enrolled in the GEM2012MENOS65 and GEM2014MAIN clinical trials who achieved MRD negativity by next-generation flow cytometry. After a median follow-up of 73 months since the first MRD negative assessment, 111 of the 267 (42%) patients showed MRD resurgence and/or PD. The only prognostic factors at diagnosis that predicted MRD resurgence and/or PD were an International Staging System (ISS) 3 and the presence of >= 0.01% circulating tumor cells (CTCs). Failure to achieve MRD negativity after induction also predicted higher risk of MRD resurgence and/or PD. Patients having 0 vs 1 vs >= 2 risk factors (ISS 3, >= 0.01% CTCs, and late MRD negativity) showed 5-year rates of MRD resurgence and/or PD of 16%, 33%, and 57%, respectively (P < .001). Thus, these easily measurable risk factors could help refine the selection of patients for whom treatment cessation after MRD negativity is being investigated in clinical trials.