Estimates of Southern White-tailed Ptarmigan daily nest survival from multiple sites in the Southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado

Estimating vital rates of avian species is important to understand population dynamics and develop potential conservation strategies that target rates for management. Avian species have reduced potential for high annual fecundity in alpine ecosystems due to a short breeding window and harsh weather conditions. We located nests from Southern White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura altipetens) across six study sites in the Southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado to estimate daily nest survival from 2013-2017. We used a known -fate hierarchical nest survival model and fit several covariates, including environmental conditions representing daily weather events and shrub cover, to describe variation in daily survival and derive estimates of nest success. We located and monitored 198 nests from 128 radio -marked ptarmigan hens. The mean nest success estimated as a derived parameter from daily nest survival was 45.6% (95% credible interval [CI]: 31.2-59.6%) and ranged from 40.3% to 50.3% across sites. Variation in daily nest survival was poorly described by the covariates we fit (95% CI of most slope coefficients overlapped 0), although there was some support for a negative effect of relative elevation (nests at lower elevations within a site survived at higher rates) and a positive effect of nest age (older nests survived at higher rates). We examined how variation in nest success was likely to influence the finite rate of population growth using a simple simulation with an agetransition matrix parameterized with previously reported fecundity and survival estimates. We found that the finite growth rate was predicted to increase 18.7% when evaluated from the lower to upper 95% CI estimated values of nest success, conditional on the other vital rates used in our simulation. We discuss the broader implications of these findings in the context of managing for nest survival of Southern White-tailed Ptarmigan.