Disruptions in Educational Progress and Fertility Dynamics by Educational Level: Unraveling the Link between Education and Fertility Stalls in Sub-Saharan Africa

Stalls in fertility decline have been found in many sub-Saharan African countries. Our objective is to unravel the relationship between education and stalled fertility by analyzing the extent to which fertility stalls reflect a lack of changes in the educational composition of the population or are related to reversals and halts in the fertility decline within educational groups. Using the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, we first estimate total fertility rates by educational level and examine how they have varied over time, especially during periods of stagnation. Then, we use the Kitagawa decomposition method to analyze changes in country-level fertility rates. We show that fertility stalls tend to be a collective experience with fertility stalls found among all educational groups in most countries that have experienced a fertility stall. In contrast, composition effects either have no or a limited impact on fertility stalls. However, slow educational progress made some countries more vulnerable to stalls.