CyberShake Earthquake Fault Rupture Modeling and Ground Motion Simulations for the Southwest Iceland Transform Zone
arxiv(2024)
摘要
CyberShake (CS) is a high-performance computing workflow for Probabilistic
Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) developed by the Statewide California
Earthquake Center. Here, we employ CS to generate a set of 2103 fault ruptures
and simulate the corresponding two horizontal velocity components time
histories of ground motion (GM) on a 5-km grid of 625 stations in Southwest
Iceland (SI). The ruptures were defined on a new synthetic time-independent
500-year catalog consisting of 223 hypothetical finite-fault sources of 5-7,
generated using a new physics-based bookshelf fault system model in the SI
transform zone. This fault system model and rupture realizations enable the CS
time-independent physics-based approach to PSHA in the region. The study aims
to migrate CS to SI and validate its kinematic fault rupture, anelastic wave
propagation and ground motion simulations. Toward this goal, we use CS to
generate multiple finite-fault rupture variations for each hypothetical fault.
CS exploits seismic reciprocity for wave propagation by computing Strain Green
Tensors along fault planes, which in turn are convolved with rupture models to
generate GM seismograms. For each GM recording station, every adjoint
simulation uses a 0-1 Hz Gaussian point source polarized along one horizontal
grid direction. Comparison of the results in the form of rotation-invariant
synthetic pseudo-acceleration spectral response values at 2, 3 and 5 sec
periods are in very good agreement with the Icelandic strong-motion dataset,
and a suite of new empirical Bayesian ground motion prediction equations
(GMPEs). The vast majority of the CS results fall within one standard deviation
of the mean GMPE predictions, previously estimated for the area. Importantly,
at large magnitudes for which no data exists in Iceland, the CS dataset may
play an important role in constraining the GMPEs for future applications.
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