Validation and comparison of prognostic scoring systems in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with nivolumab.

OBJECTIVE:Several scoring systems have been developed to predict prognosis in patients with refractory cancer. We aimed to validate eight scoring systems and determine the best method for predicting the prognosis of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with nivolumab. METHODS:This multicentre retrospective study involved 154 patients with recurrent and/or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with nivolumab between 2017 and 2020. Oncological outcomes were assessed according to the scoring systems, including MD Anderson Cancer Center + neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and Hammersmith scores. Objective response, overall survival and progression-free survival were evaluated using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analyses. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve and estimate the efficacy of each score. RESULTS:No significant associations were found between the responses and any score. Seven of the eight scoring systems were associated with disease control (odds ratio, 0.26-0.70). Amongst the eight scoring systems, MD Anderson Cancer Center + neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio showed the highest area under the curve for predicting response and disease control. Seven scoring systems were prognostic factors for progression-free survival (hazard ratio, 1.22-1.95). All eight scoring systems were prognostic factors for overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.62-3.83). According to the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics analysis for overall survival, the Hammersmith scoring system had the best predictive ability at 3 months, and the MD Anderson Cancer Center + neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio scoring system had the highest area under the curve between 6 and 24 months. CONCLUSIONS:MD Anderson Cancer Center + neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and Hammersmith scoring systems were better predictors of prognosis in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with nivolumab.