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The intransitive dice kernel: 1_x≥ y-1_x≤ y/4 - 3(x-y)(1+xy)/8

Probability Theory and Related Fields(2024)

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Abstract
Answering a pair of questions of Conrey, Gabbard, Grant, Liu, and Morrison, we prove that a triplet of dice drawn from the multiset model are intransitive with probability 1/4+o(1) and the probability a random pair of dice tie tends toward α n^-1 for an explicitly defined constant α . This extends and sharpens the recent results of Polymath regarding the balanced sequence model. We further show the distribution of larger tournaments converges to a universal tournamenton in both models. This limit naturally arises from the discrete spectrum of a certain skew-symmetric operator (given by the kernel in the title acting on L^2([-1,1]) ). The limit exhibits a degree of symmetry and can be used to prove that, for instance, the limiting probability that A_i beats A_i+1 for 1≤ i≤ 4 and that A_5 beats A_1 is 1/32+o(1) . Furthermore, the limiting tournamenton has range contained in the discrete set {0,1} . This proves that the associated tournamenton is non-quasirandom in a dramatic fashion, vastly extending work of Cornacchia and Hązła regarding the continuous analogue of the balanced sequence model. The proof is based on a reduction to conditional central limit theorems (related to work of Polymath), the use of a “Poissonization” style method to reduce to computations with independent random variables, and the systematic use of switching-based arguments to extract cancellations in Fourier estimates when establishing local limit-type estimates.
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60F05,60C05
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