Cardiac computed tomography angiography-derived pulmonary vein volumetry as a predictor for atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation

Background: There is an increasing evidence that pulmonary vein (PV) enlargement is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF); however, the predictive value of PV enlargement in AF recurrence remains unclear. This study sought to evaluate whether PV volume quantification derived from cardiac computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) could serve as a predictive indicator of the success of the catheter ablation (CA) procedure. Methods: The data of 160 patients diagnosed with AF who underwent both CCTA and CA treatments from January to June 2020 were retrospectively examined; the CCTA was conducted before the CA surgery. The study focused on documenting the PV structure, and the volume of the PV and left atrium (LA). The clinical, CCTA, and echocardiographic predictors of the recurrence and no-recurrence groups were compared. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to adjust for confounders. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were analyzed to assess the predictive performance of the predictors of AF recurrence. Results: Of the 160 patients [55.6% male, 62.00 (55.25-68.00) years, 23.1% with persistent AF], 45 (28.1%) experienced AF recurrence within a one-year period. Notably, patients with AF recurrence had elevated CHADS(2) scores (P=0.020) and increased LA and PV volumes (P<0.05). Patients with persistent AF (n=37) had significantly larger LA volume indexes (P<0.001) than those with paroxysmal AF, but there was no difference between the two groups in terms of the PV maximum volume index (P=0.200). Moreover, the PV maximum volume index [odds ratio (OR): 1.244, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.008-1.536, P=0.042] and the LA minimum volume index (OR: 1.026, 95% CI: 1.001-1.052, P=0.038) were found to be significant predictors of AF recurrence. The ROC curves revealed that the PV maximum volume index threshold for predicting AF recurrence was 7.13 mL/m(2), with a sensitivity of 84.4% and a specificity of 34.8% [area under the curve (AUC): 0.635, 95% CI: 0.540-0.730, P=0.008], and the LA minimum volume index threshold for predicting AF recurrence was 46.16 mL/m(2), with a sensitivity of 88.9% and a specificity of 31.3% (AUC: 0.629, 95% CI: 0.534-0.723, P=0.012). A sub-analysis of patients with a lower left atrial dimension (LAD <= 38 mm in females, LAD <= 40 mm in males, n=120) demonstrated that the PV maximum volume index was a noteworthy indicator of AF recurrence (OR: 1.443: 95% CI: 1.145-1.820, P=0.002). Conversely, no significant correlation between AF recurrence and the LA volume index was found. The AUC value for the PV maximum volume index predictive of recurrent AF was 0.680 (95% CI: 0.577-0.781, P=0.003), with a sensitivity of 75.8%, specificity of 54%, and the cut-off value of the maximum AUC was 7.89 mL/m(2). Conclusions: PV volume, derived from CCTA, may help to predict the recurrence of AF after CA, and is superior to the LA size in patients with less pronounced LA enlargement.